The Future Climate of the Bay Area

Over the past couple of years of living in the Bay Area, I have noticed more record-breaking heat waves, especially during the warmer months of the year. During the September 2017 heatwave, many places in the Bay Area exceeded 100ºF and broke temperature records. Specifically, I remembered Palo Alto hitting 109ºF, while San Francisco shattered its all-time record high temperature by reaching 106ºF. I am deeply concerned about these heat waves because they increase wildfire danger. During 2017 and 2019, the North Bay region of the Bay Area experienced severe wildfires that damaged structures and led to evacuations. In 2018, the Mendocino Complex Fire that occurred north of the Bay Area was the largest fire in California history. These wildfires worsened the air quality in the Bay Area, and I often wore a mask so that I would not breathe in the smoke. It seems that the future climate of the Bay Area – along with the entire state of California – is quite ominous.

Today, I stumbled upon a Climate Central article that shows the average summer high temperatures of 1,001 cities in the U.S. by 2100. According to this article, by 2100, summers in Palo Alto (average summer high of 81.14ºF) will be like summers now in Concord, North Carolina (average summer high of 88.29ºF).

By 2100, Palo Alto's average summer temperature is projected to increase from 81.14ºF to 88.29ºF, a difference of 7.15ºF.

In the table below, I included data from the Climate Central article on how summer temperatures are projected to change for many places in the Bay Area.

Bay Area Future Summer Temperatures

Bay Area City/Community	Current Average Summer Temperature (ºF)	Predicted Average Summer Temperature in 2100 (ºF)	Average Summer Temperature Change (ºF)
Alameda	71.38	78.66	7.28
Antioch	88.21	95.58	7.37
Berkeley	73.08	80.49	7.41
Brentwood	88.27	95.58	7.31
Castro Valley	76.62	82.99	6.37
Concord	85.78	93.58	7.8
Cupertino	82.87	89.89	7.02
Daly City	67.57	74.98	7.41
Danville	83.75	91.31	7.56
Dublin	85.57	93.22	7.65
Fairfield	87.22	95.22	8
Fremont	77.9	85.26	7.36
Gilroy	86.5	93.87	7.37
Hayward	74.97	82.27	7.3
Livermore	85.37	93.22	7.85
Milpitas	80.89	88.29	7.4
Mountain View	78.64	85.84	7.2
Napa	83.08	90.86	7.78
Newark	77.07	84.43	7.36
Novato	80.29	87.64	7.35
Oakland	72.36	79.61	7.25
Palo Alto	81.14	88.29	7.15
Petaluma	81.55	88.99	7.44
Pittsburg	87.19	95.22	8.03
Pleasanton	85.15	92.53	7.38
Redwood City	76.39	83.59	7.2
Richmond	72.21	79.61	7.4
Rohnert Park	80.82	88.38	7.56
San Bruno	70.77	77.94	7.17
San Francisco	68.61	76.17	7.56
San Jose	81.82	89.11	7.29
San Leandro	73.63	80.98	7.35
San Mateo	74.48	81.54	7.06
San Rafael	77.45	84.88	7.43
San Ramon	84.88	92.53	7.65
Santa Clara	79.97	87.12	7.15
Santa Rosa	80.62	88.09	7.47
South San Francisco	70.29	77.59	7.3
Sunnyvale	78.82	85.91	7.09
Union City	77.59	85.1	7.51
Vacaville	91.67	99.63	7.96
Vallejo	78.53	86.22	7.69
Walnut Creek	84.36	92.05	7.69

Based on this information, it seems that places in the Bay Area are projected to warm up from 6ºF to slightly over 8ºF by 2100, which is quite a drastic change.